A conversation with Anastassia Makarieva, researcher at the Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute and with a fellowship at the University of Munich, about how healthy ecosystems, and specifically healthy forests, regulate moisture and thus rain. We discuss tipping points and where to look for wet spots even in very dry landscapes.
LISTEN TO THE CONVERSATION ON:
This episode is part of the Water Cycles series, supported by The Nest, where we interview the dreamers and doers who are using the latest technology to figure out where to intervene first. They are making or trying to make the investment and return calculations. so what is missing, what is holding us back? Maybe we lack the imagination to back them and try regeneration at scale.
Learn from one of the key scientists who developed the biotic pump theory. Why not all hope is lost, we still have massive healthy forests, but they need to be protected immediately, not only because of the carbon, and the biodiversity, but because they regulate our global weather system. From floods to droughts, from cyclones to hail, all depends on healthy ecosystems. And, of course, where she would focus her investments.
EVERYONE SHOULD CARE ABOUT THE LARGE REMAINING HEALTHY FORESTS. THEY ARE NOT ONLY THE LUNGS OF THE PLANET BUT THE IRRIGATION SYSTEM
According to Anastasia, we are not at the bottom yet. There are still things to preserve, and if we just stop doing what we’re doing to forests at the moment, that could significantly alleviate and improve our condition, and prevent it from rapidly worsening.
”We still have this forest belt, and it is of utmost importance for all people, at least in the northern hemisphere. […] So, we need to reconsider our appreciation of how interconnected we are via the vegetation. […] We need international efforts to preserve this, just as a guarantee for the success of all our other efforts. Because while we are doing regenerative agriculture in one place, there comes a heatwave and seats with temperatures above 45, which is beyond what plants can tolerate. So, we need to move in a direction, in a strategic direction: preserving what we still have.” – Anastassia Makarieva
”We see these initiatives growing. Also, in the United States. There was such an initiative called Proforestation, which means identifying the forests that are self-sustainable and letting them in peace to develop to their full ecological potential when they can regulate climate and water in the best possible way, that is genetically encoded into them in the course of evolution. In Russia, we are trying with our colleagues to set aside those self-sustainable forests that performed this regulatory function such that they could continue doing that. And this should be the focus of international efforts and investors. Because there should be lobbying, I don’t know, perhaps shadow lobbying for this course, because it is really important. And if we don’t do that, all our local and regional efforts can be undermined and investments lost. So, this is like an elephant in the room, which nobody talks about, but it is there.” – Anastassia Makarieva
LOOK FOR WET SPOTS IN A LANDSCAPE OR ON A CONTINENT, WHERE TO START
According to Anastassia, the proximity to the sea is a good thing. This depends on the physical conditions, on how the geophysical winds without vegetation would blow, and if you are on the root of the prevailing wind, it is better than being against the winds that blow from land to the ocean.
”We found that in the absence of vegetation, precipitation declines by three times over a few 100 kilometres. So, 100 kilometres is something that is close enough […] So, what we need to have in mind when attempting to restore an ecosystem, there are two regimes… […] When the forest adds moisture to the atmosphere, the idea is to initiate condensation. So, that you must reach 100% relative humidity, and then there is precipitation, then there is the pressure drops, dynamics, incoming moist air, and everything could be as needed.” – Anastassia Makarieva
‘So, even inland, we can look for what we call wet spots, which are regions or locations where conditions for rainfall are good from the geophysical point of view. These are some elevations […] Even in Saudi Arabia, if you look in the west south part, there is a small elevation, and even within the desert, you can search for such wet spots. And if we analyse the circulation around, then we could choose the proper vegetation types and try to improve starting from there.’’ – Anastassia Makarieva
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A DRY AND WET CLIMATE AND HOW TO TIP A LANDSCAPE TOWARDS DRY
There is a tipping point between the dry and the wet regime, says Anastassia. When we restore the ecosystem, we must carefully guide it through this tipping point. We need to understand that this exists and that for the ecosystem to come to the wet site, a lot of help may be needed.
”But, imagine that there is a very dry atmosphere and the forest adds moisture to this dry atmosphere, but the dew point is never reached, the humidity remains on low relative humidity and no condensation is initiated, then all this moisture could be just blown away by the wind and the investment will be lost. In this dry regime, the vegetation relies on the moisture store, and if nothing happens, it will just deplete the store, and that’s it. So, this dry regime is not self-sustainable. And on the other hand, if you increase the amount of vegetation to a point that the transpiration is so strong that it sufficiently motions the atmosphere then, the process of condensation is switched on, and you get at least something in return.” – Anastassia Makarieva
”This is about the choice of species. What our colleagues Felipe Pasini and Dayana Andrade are doing, they’re mimicking natural ecological succession in the region, which actually consists in choosing carefully the species that would accumulate moisture in the soil and minimising all other expenditures, except transpiration. So, there is no evaporation from soil to nowhere. So, using moisture very sparingly and then gradually, as this soil moisture store develops, the conditions improve, and probably the trees get access to lower levels. So, then the species composition changes to more active transpiration guiding to the wet regime.” – Anastassia Makarieva
FOCUS ON THE MOST DEGRADED PIECES OF LAND FIRST IN THIS REGENERATIVE TRANSITION SO, WE DON’T COMPETE FOR FOOD PRODUCTION
We have a division between the very rich and very poor, and amongst the wealthy people, there is a growing demand for healthy food, and growing healthy food requires a lot of labour and a lot of land.
”So, there is a slow down because if you need to grow healthy food, you need to slow down, that’s for sure. But this will export ecological disaster elsewhere, because there are almost 10 billion people to feed. And so now there are hotspots of this ecological disaster being formed. And this is Russia, where big ag will be flourishing, Russia, Ukraine, and probably also Brazil, where the Amazon Forest will be destroyed […] So, the developed countries, moving up on this Maslow Pyramid, they suddenly realize, ‘oh, we need healthy ecosystems to thrive. And now they want to recreate them in there, which they destroyed. But this will inevitably create destruction elsewhere. So, we need at least to understand that this will go on and somehow take it into account.” – Anastassia Makarieva
”But in Brazil, it will be a disaster, it will be a total disaster if the Amazon Forest is under threat. So, when you guys hear regenerate, our American colleagues regenerate, let us think what happens in the Amazon where the big ag will be just clapping hands of joy that demand is growing. And the pressure on the Amazon Forest increasing. The Amazon Forest is crucial for climate, not in terms of carbon, in terms of the water cycle and temperature regime’ – Anastassia Makarieva
OTHER POINTS DISCUSSED
Koen and Anastassia also talked about:
- Cognac and the tipping point
- A healthy forest triggers the rain
- What happens when the land is not regenerated
LINKS:
- Study Newly discovered landscape traps produce regime shifts in wet forests
- Biotic pump
- Alpha Lo interview with Anastasia
- Proforestation
LINKED INTERVIEWS:
- Neal Spackman – Why it is so difficult to get truly regenerative water and ecosystem restoring projects funded
- Alpha Lo – What if water is more important than carbon
- Millán Millán – Farm water at its proper scale
- Marcel de Berg – Water is a more important cooling factor than the heat of carbon
- Ties van der Hoeven – The regreening project we can’t afford not to do, restoring the water and weather systems in the Med, starting with fish
- Zach Weiss – On a mission to train hundreds of thousands of people in key water restoration techniques
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The above references an opinion and is for information and educational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
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