A conversation with Ali Bin Shahid, an engineer with a deep background in permaculture (and a military one too), a passion for modelling and one of the very few people using data and engineering approaches to tackle critical questions about regeneration. We explore how to put numbers to abstract ideas like slowing water down, spreading it, and soaking it. What does “slow” actually mean? How do we measure it—by kilometres per hour, or some other metric? How much regeneration is required to restore rivers or trigger rains in a given landscape? And, for example, where globally do we have the biggest potential? Where is the biggest gap between the forest and water potential and the current situation on the ground?
It’s definitely possible to manage a few acres or a few hectares through observation, if you’re there for many decades or even through different generations. But as soon as we start talking about regeneration at the landscape level, we need numbers. We need numbers and models. Surprisingly, a lot is already possible: we can calculate to a relatively detailed degree, what certain flows of air, water, and moisture will look like in a landscape. This means you can start to calculate and imagine, almost at a parcel level, where we need to regenerate in order to restore, for instance, summer rains and year-round rivers.
But the surprising part is how few people are doing this work. Ali is at the forefront, bridging the gap between philosophical principles of water cycle restoration and practical, data-driven solutions. Together, we delve into early but exciting efforts to quantify these ideas: how much water to slow, where the global potential lies, and the vast gaps between current conditions and what’s achievable.
LISTEN TO THE CONVERSATION ON:
IT’S SO IMPORTANT TO MODEL THE POTENTIAL OF WATER CYCLE RESTORATION
Ali highlights the importance of understanding the physical and chemical aspects of soil and water interactions.
”Before you do any kind of afforestation work, you need to find out what’s the water potential of that land, which doesn’t mean the winds are bringing in the moisture; it actually means how much water is underground and how much water is flowing on the land.” Ali Bin Shahid
”So, for example, they say, slow the water, slow the flow, spread it, sink it. So, I was like, okay, how much do you slow? How do you know, is it slow enough? What is slow? What does slow mean? Is one kilometre per hour slow? Or do I look at the land and understand slow? But even then, I had this question that, okay, this is some kind of land that is like clay soils, which are nearly impermeable […] So they are very hard; when it rains, water flows over them. So, for them, slow doesn’t mean anything; even if I just reduce the slope to two degrees, even then the water is enough to flow over all of the land and not even permeate the first one foot of the soil. And this actually was a problem…” Ali Bin Shahid
WE NEED MODELS WHEN WORKING AT LARGER-SCALE RESTORATION
Ali explains the difficulty of applying permaculture principles to large-scale projects and the need for modelling and calculations.
”It was mostly sort of an intuitive process. You just keep on looking at the land; understand the land. The land will tell you what it wants, and you can just work it out, which makes sense on a farm because you’re always on a farm and you can actually do it. […] When we started doing that, then the questions became even more interesting, because now, in a broad-scale regenerative project, like a forestation, a place that is degraded, you can’t actually be on the land all the time and see each of the aspects of the land. So, then I had to work out these things. And I started looking at the different research people scientists have done, and I started modelling them piece by piece. And that’s how Regenesis has started.” Ali Bin Shahid
WHY IT WASN’T POSSIBLE UNTIL RECENTLY
He explains the challenges of current climate models and the need for more detailed data to account for bio-precipitation and natural regeneration.
”The bioprecipitation models are not in the climate models as such. I’ve not figured them out completely, but many of the other aspects I’ve seen in the models that are not; for example, the grid size of the climate models is too large to account for bio-precipitation and bio- natural regeneration aspects.” Ali Bin Shahid
”The data problem: we don’t have the data for everything right now, but with the AI coming up and the increasing complexity of the models, those gaps can be filled, and once those gaps are filled, you can actually pinpoint the exact locations where you would need certain things to change the climate. It would eventually go into a geoengineering sort of space from natural regeneration. But this is something we have to live with.” Ali Bin Shahid
OTHER POINTS DISCUSSED
Koen and Ali also talked about
- Application of modelling in practical projects
- The importance of water harvesting education
- The role of policy and investment in regenerative projects
LINKS:
- R3genesis Substack
- Steve Boniwell
- Proposal for enhancing bioprecipitation
- The Valencia rain plan breaking
- Examining the Pakistan Floods of 2022 and Land Regeneration Strategies – Part-I
- Examining the Pakistan Floods of 2022 and Land Regeneration Strategies – Part II
- From Sewage to Sanctuary: A Bold Approach to Green Space Creation
LINKED INTERVIEWS:
- Taimur Malik – From Wall Street through GM cotton to founding Drawdown Farm in the desert of Pakistan
- Ties van der Hoeven – The regreening project we can’t afford not to do, restoring the water and weather systems in the Med, starting with fish
- Tim Coates – Sell flood mitigation to institutional players to finance water cycle restoration
- Our Vital Role as Keystone Species in restoring Water Cycles
- WATER CYCLES SERIES
——————————————
Feedback, comments, suggestions? Reach me via Twitter @KoenvanSeijen, in the comments below or through Get in Touch on this website.
Join the Investing in Regenerative Agriculture and Food newsletter on www.eepurl.com/cxU33P
The above references an opinion and is for information and educational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.